monkinetic the blog

(R_t) represents the effective reproduction rate of the virus calculated for each locale. It lets us estimate how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a specific area. Values over 1.0 mean we should expect more cases in that area, values under 1.0 mean we should expect fewer.

R_t Live is tracking daily transmission rate values across the US States. My home state of Arizona is currently in a downward trend with an R_t right now of 0.77:

Looking at the daily case numbers, you can see how small rises in R_t result in muliplicative rises in case numbers:

We are noticeably flattening the curve in Arizona since late March, but opening up businesses and social gatherings any time soon will change these trends for the worse.